"An Analysis of Wars over Mineral Resources and Water"

By: Javier Canasto

Credit: Konuko, National Front of Collectives

In the current context (2025), geopolitical tensions have evolved into a struggle for control over strategic resources such as critical minerals and water, partially displacing oil as the main trigger of conflicts. This shift is driven by factors such as technological transition, the climate crisis, and competition among global powers. Below are the key elements of this phenomenon.

Critical Minerals

The New Global Battleground

Minerals essential for green and digital technologies (lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements, etc.) are now central to the rivalry between the U.S. and China. Both nations are seeking to secure supply chains in order to dominate sectors such as artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and defense.

Concrete examples:

• The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which holds 70% of the world’s cobalt reserves, negotiates access to its resources in exchange for military support against rebel groups.

• Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) are investing in global mining and AI development to diversify their economies and reduce dependence on hydrocarbons.

• China controls 60% of rare earth production, essential for electronics and weaponry, prompting U.S. “decoupling” strategies.

This scenario has revived neocolonial practices, where developing nations rich in resources are pressured to align with major powers, sacrificing sovereignty in exchange for investment or security.

Water

A Resource Under Growing Strain

Water scarcity, worsened by climate change, is triggering conflicts in regions experiencing critical stress.

Key facts:

• By 2025, global water demand is expected to exceed supply by 56%, with 3.5 billion people living in water-stressed areas.

Current conflicts:

• Middle East Turkey and Iraq dispute control over the Tigris and Euphrates; Israel seeks to monopolize shared resources with Palestine and Lebanon.

• Africa The Sahel region faces climate-induced migration and terrorism linked to desertification.

• Asia India and Pakistan compete over the Indus and Chenab rivers, while China diverts waterways affecting neighboring countries.

Agriculture (67% of global water consumption) and industry (20%) further intensify pressure—especially in emerging economies, where access to water remains unequal.

Geopolitical Strategies of the Global Powers

• United States Under the Trump administration, it prioritizes a transactional approach: withdrawing support from climate agreements (such as the Paris Accord) and using tariffs or bilateral alliances to secure minerals—even at the expense of traditional allies.

• China Consolidates its influence through mining investments in Africa and Latin America, taking advantage of institutional weaknesses in these regions.

• European Union and Others Promote alliances such as the Partnership for Critical Minerals Security, though with limited success compared to China’s strategic advantage.

This landscape is fragmenting the multilateral order, replacing it with economic blocs and ad hoc alliances.

Socio-environmental Impacts and Risks

• Environmental degradation Illegal mining and overexploitation of aquifers are causing desertification, pollution, and biodiversity loss (e.g., the Aral Sea in Central Asia).

• Political Instability Countries like the DRC and Afghanistan are witnessing how their resources finance armed groups, perpetuating cycles of violence.

• Forced Migration In the Sahel and Central America, the lack of water and arable land is displacing millions, fueling humanitarian crises.

• 
  

Possible Solutions and Future Challenges

• International Cooperation Initiatives like the UN Panel on Critical Materials (2024) aim to balance resource access with human rights and sustainability.

• Technology and Management Investments in desalination, mineral recycling, and efficient agriculture could help mitigate tensions—but require global financing.

• Local Empowerment Ensuring the participation of Indigenous communities and women in resource management reduces internal conflicts.

The wars of the 21st century are no longer fought solely over oil, but over control of resources essential for survival and technological power. This scenario demands a rethinking of global policies, where sustainability and equity must become foundational pillars to prevent systemic collapse.